Part 2: Global Balance of Power
The West has dominated the rest of the world for nearly 500 years. This section looks at the changes over this period. In the first article, The Rise Of The West Was Based On Luck. That Has Run Out, we look at the rise of the West and argue that the West’s rise was based on a lot of luck and was by no means inevitable. We compare the rise of Spain, Britain and the United States and what they all had in common. In Crisis: Or An Explanation On The Origins Of The Decline Of The West we explore the decline of the West over the past few decades and ask why this happened and argue that this decline was also not inevitable, but as a result of bad choices by Europeans. We also look at the conflict in Ukraine and the possibility of escalation, resulting in either a full blown conventional war or, worse, nuclear war in The War in Ukraine: Escalation, Miscalculation and the Path to Peace. We then go into more detail about what a peace plan for Ukraine could look like in Forging Peace: From Centuries of War to Ukraine’s Future.
The following article, The North African Threat And Mediterranean Reunification, looks at the historical overlaps of North Africa and Europe and argues that the best solution to the problems of Islamic unrest in the area is closer European integration with North Africa. In Caliphate of the Headless: Why Islamic State Deserves Our Respect we look at why Islamic State actively provoked the West by attacking Westerners in their home countries and by beheading them in Iraq and Syria.
We then move onto China, in China Has Many Of The Characteristics Of An Emerging Colonial Power. How Does It Compare Historically? and look at the history of colonisation starting from ancient Greek city states to China’s emerging influence in Africa. China appears again in a comparison with Rome and Persia’s treatment of their Arab allies, who eventually toppled them both in Rome Vs. Persia And The Transfer Of Strategic Technologies To China. This is followed by two more chapters on China, What Happens When China Becomes The Largest Economy In The World? and Why China Could Invade Taiwan – And Get Away With It, which describes the fascinating non Chinese history of Taiwan and its relationship with the mainland. In The West’s romance with Free Trade is ending. Why? we look at how the rise of China has raised questions about the West’s adherence to a free trade model.
In the final article, Why Do We Need The Military? Securing Energy Supplies And Trade Routes, we look at the role of the military and the main reasons it exists today, not to defend national borders, but rather to secure energy supplies and trade routes. We ask why we do this given the alternative choices that exist.
Forging Peace: From Centuries of War to Ukraine's Future
From the ashes of centuries of war, paths to peace emerge. As Russia's invasion of Ukraine rages, history offers hope through neutrality, federalization, partition, and negotiated settlements - each with precedents of resolving the most schemic conflicts. Ukraine's future may lie in combining these elements: a federalized state with autonomous Russian regions, internationally-monitored referendums for Crimea, or a grand diplomatic compromise. Forging lasting peace demands confronting harsh realities and abandoning unattainable ideals. By understanding the past, we can navigate the current crisis and build a better future, guided by the hard-learned lessons of generations who struggled for resolution before us.
The War in Ukraine: Escalation, Miscalculation, and the Path to Peace
The war in Ukraine risks escalating into a broader confrontation with devastating consequences. History shows how minor conflicts can spiral out of control and how nations often miscalculate the costs of war. Scenarios for Ukraine range from moderate escalation to nuclear war. However, paths to peace exist through compromise, such as Ukrainian neutrality, federalization, or international peacekeeping. Diplomacy and restraint are crucial to prevent further bloodshed and find a diplomatic solution.
The West’s romance with Free Trade is ending. Why?
After 100 years of promoting free trade as a way of enriching everyone, the West is having a rethink: is free trade really that great?This History Future Now article looks back at Western trading practices from the 1400s to the present day and sees a story ark that goes from mercantilism to free trade and back. What is interesting is that free trade may have been an illusion all along.
Why Do We Need The Military? Securing Energy Supplies And Trade Routes
The military is no longer used to defend our borders and countries from attack, but to maintain secure energy supplies and trade routes. Both of which are not worth fighting for.
Why China Could Invade Taiwan – And Get Away With It
Mainland China is right. It is only a matter of time before Taiwan is governed by mainland China once again.
What Happens When China Becomes The Largest Economy In The World?
China’s rise as an economic hegemon is frightening for the West. But it takes more than economic power to convert into political, military and cultural dominance.
Rome Vs. Persia And The Transfer Of Strategic Technologies To China
China is a master at forcing western companies to hand over critical intellectual property in exchange for short term access to the Chinese market. What are the lessons that can be learned from history, what is happening today and what impact could this have on the future?
China Has Many Of The Characteristics Of An Emerging Colonial Power. How Does It Compare Historically?
Few countries set out to become colonial powers. China will end up as one, whether it wants to or not.
The North African Threat And Mediterranean Reunification
North Africa was once part of the Roman Empire. The EU needs to tie it in closer.
Crisis: Or An Explanation On The Origins Of The Decline Of The West
The decline of the West and rise of the rest was not inevitable, but rather due to bad choices by politicians who dont understand the past, the present or the future.
The Rise Of The West Was Based On Luck. That Has Run Out.
The rise of the West was based on luck. A lack of understanding of why the West was so lucky makes it hard for western leaders to hold on to western dominance of the world.
Hinkley Point decision is really about China and Brexit
The British government’s decision to go ahead with the Hinkley Point nuclear power station is really about Brexit and China and not electricity in the UK.